关于新冠肺炎疫情的拐点可能已经过去外文翻译资料

附录B 外文原文

The inflection point about COVID-19 may have passed

In an era of globalization and informatisation , a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) imposes a huge impact on everyonersquo;s life , as what the COVID-19 has demonstrated at the moment. Under Chinarsquo;s nationwide quarantine and extremely strict epidemic prevention measures, it becomes increasingly critical for China and the world to know the evolving trend, though unclear yet, for the sake of the global economy. This is mainly due to the following two important reasons . First of all, because of the quarantine, a sudden shutdown of manufacturing in China (now the second largest economy of the world) would break the global supply chain, with the potential to eliminate Chinarsquo;s current advantageous position. Secondly, many small enterprises in the service industry are facing death or life situation with the spreading disease, and many will bankrupt. When the inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemic appears suddenly becomes a critical issue for China and the world.

How to predict the inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemics?From a geographical point of view, the spatial diffusion of infectious diseases is actually a comprehensive phenomenon in which the virus spreads in space and time. There are many types of diffusions, which can generally be divided into two categories: expansion diffusion and migration diffusion. Expansion diffusion can be further divided into contagious diffusion and hierarchical diffusions; and migration diffusion can be classified into relocation diffusion and propagated diffusions. Contagious diffusion, also known as infection diffusion, refers to the fact that the number of contacts is increasing and the space occupied by contacts is constantly expanding without changing the location of the source of infection. For infectious diseases, through the mutual contact of individuals, the virus or germ is transmitted from the carrier to other people or animals; that is, a progressive continuous spatiotemporal process of the virus or germ diffusion is in place .

To accurately describe such a spatiotemporal process of diffusion, a couple of key elements are needed, such as the source of infection, the intensity, the time and the distance of propagation as well as the propagated channels (paths). The end result is the whole process either “disappears” or is “out of control”. Assuming a situation of single-sourced epidemic and steady intensity of infection, without human interventions, the diffusion of virus in time will follow the shape of the power function or the logistics function . However, since the growth of viral or bacterial cells requires protein nutrition, and cell regeneration takes time, the spatiotemporal process of the infectious diseases evolves in several different stages. For more complicated spatiotemporal processes, quadratic, cubic or exponential functions can be used and adopted .

Wuhan has taken a measure to close the city since 10 a.m. on January 23, 2020. Big data show that most (73.6%) of the outflow population in Wuhan have entered neighboring cities such as Xiaogan, Huanggang, Jingmen, Jingzhou and Xiangyang in Hubei Province from January 20 to 23. Some people also took the virus abroad. This actually separated the propagated environment of the COVID-19 epidemic into three sub-systems: the whole of China(including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), the whole of China except Hubei, and the world. This project has collected data published by the National Health Commission of the Peoplersquo;s Republic of China (NHCPRC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) between January 20 and February 11, 2020. According to the three statistical units of the whole of China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), the whole of China except Hubei, and the world, the number of newly confirmed cases per day was repackaged, and the following findings are revealed.

The epidemic situation of COVID-19 follows the distribution of quadratic and cubic functions. Using the aforementioned five mathematical models for regression and simulation, which are

cubic, quadratic, exponential, logarithmic and power models, we found that the data of the COVID-19 epidemic about the whole of China and the world follows the cubic function,while the data for the whole of China except Hubei conforms to the quadratic function respectively.

For the whole of China:

Regression and simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic.

1. The number of newly confirmed cases per day for the whole of China.
2. The number of newly confirmed cases per day for the whole of China except Hubei.
3. The number of newly confirmed cases per day for the world.
4. The number of newly accumulated cases in the whole of China except Hubei.

The inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemic may have passed. According to this basic principle, if there is an incremental decrease for two consecutive days, it is recorded as a passivation; and if there are two consecutive days of passivations, it indicates the emergence of a new trend. Following the daily data of newly confirmed cases, we can see that the whole of China except Hubei, two passivations formed on February 4–5 and February 7–8. There- fore, it is reasonable to conclude that the inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemic may have taken place, and the time is February 9, 2020(As shown in figure.a).

The COVID-19 epidemic could approach the zero growth in the number of newly confirmed cases during the period of February 19 to 29 in the whole of China except Hubei. According to the recent grid-based measures adopted by the domestic COVID-19 epidemic control, the source of infection has been strictly controlled, namely, the whole country has been divided into isolated communities, which are defending themselves separately; and the central gov- ernment has o

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附录A 译文

关于新冠肺炎疫情的拐点可能已经过去

在全球化、信息化的时代，新冠肺炎疫情对每个人的生活都有巨大得影响。在中国实行全国隔离和极端严格的疫情防控措施下，了解疫情发展趋势对中国乃至世界都变得越来越重要，对全球经济来说也是如此。这主要是由于以下两个重要原因。首先，由于隔离，中国(现在是世界第二大经济体)制造业的突然关闭，将中断全球供应链，有可能消除中国目前的优势地位。其次，随着新冠肺炎疫情的传播，许多小企业正面临着死亡或生存的局面，许多小企业会破产。新冠肺炎疫情何时出现拐点，成为中国乃至全世界面临的关键问题。

如何预测新冠肺炎疫情的拐点呢?从地理空间的意义上来说，新冠肺炎疫情扩散实际上是一种广泛存在的现象。

新冠肺炎疫情是空间传播。扩散的类型很多，一般可分为两类：膨胀扩散和迁移扩散。膨胀扩散又可进一步分为传染性扩散和层次扩散。是指在不改变传染源位置的情况下，接触者数量不断增加，所占空间不断扩大。对于传染病，通过个体之间的相互接触，病毒或细菌由唾液传播给他人或动物。它是病毒或细菌细胞在四处扩散的一个渐进的连续性时空过程。

要准确描述这种扩散过程，需要考虑传染源、传播强度、传播时间、传播距离以及传播通道(路径)等关键因素。最终的结果是整个过程要么“消失”，要么“失去控制”。假设新冠肺炎疫情为单一来源，感染强度稳定，没有人为干预，病毒的及时扩散将遵循幂函数或后勤函数的形态。然而，由于病毒或细菌细胞的生长需要蛋白质营养，而细胞再生需要时间，于是传染病的时空过程会在几个不同的阶段发展。对于更复杂的时空过程，可以使用二次函数、三次函数或指数函数。

自2020年1月23日上午10时起，武汉市采取了关闭城市的措施。大数据显示，1月20日至23日，武汉市大部分(73.6%)流出人口进入了湖北省孝感、黄冈、荆门、荆州、襄阳等周边城市。一些人还把病毒带到国外。这实际上分离了传播环境。

将新冠肺炎疫情划分为三个子系统:全中国(包括香港) ，除湖北外的整个中国，乃至全世界。本项目收集了中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会和世界卫生组织在2020年1月20日至2月11日发布的数据。对除湖北外的全中国及全球每天新增确诊病例数进行了重新包装，结果如下：

如图所示：(a)是全国每天新增确诊病例数

(b)是除湖北外，全国每天新增确诊病例数

(c)是全世界每天新确诊的病例数

(d)是除湖北外，全国各地新增病例数

新冠肺炎疫情的拐点可能已经过去。根据这一基本原理，如果连续两天出现递增递减，则被记录为钝化;如果连续两天处于被动状态，则表明出现了一种新的趋势。从每日新增确诊病例数据看，除湖北外，全国2月4-5日和2月7-8日形成了两个钝化。因此，我们有理由得出结论，2019冠状病毒肺炎疫情的拐点可能已经发生，时间是2020年2月9日（图a）

2019年2月19日至29日，除湖北外，全国新冠肺炎新增确诊病例增幅可能接近零。近期国内疫情防控采取网格化措施，严格控制传染源，实行社区隔离、隔离防御。中央政府已经要求其他省份的政府为湖北境内的市县抗击疫情提供支持。这项倡议非常成功。如图（d）所示，2月19日至29日，除湖北外，全国新增确诊病例数可能接近零增长。

如前所述，本研究的目的是根据现有数据预测除湖北以外的全中国新冠肺炎疫情的趋势。考虑到问题的复杂性和不确定性，预测除了中国外以，其他国家新冠肺炎疫情的拐点在何时出现会更加复杂，这也是值得更多的讨论的事情。

乔林谷、朱杰、孙亦菲、开周、姜谷

a 清华大学建筑学院，中国北京100085

b 中国城市规划设计研究院江苏省分会，中国南京21000

c 加州州立大学北岭分校，国际创新与发展研究所（I3D），地理与环境研究系，美国加利福尼亚州北岭分校，邮编91326

d 湖南大学建筑学院，中国长沙410082

e 湖北省武汉师范大学城市环境科学学院地理过程分析与模拟重点实验室，中国武汉430079

附录B 外文原文

The inflection point about COVID-19 may have passed

In an era of globalization and informatisation , a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) imposes a huge impact on everyonersquo;s life , as what the COVID-19 has demonstrated at the moment. Under Chinarsquo;s nationwide quarantine and extremely strict epidemic prevention measures, it becomes increasingly critical for China and the world to know the evolving trend, though unclear yet, for the sake of the global economy. This is mainly due to the following two important reasons . First of all, because of the quarantine, a sudden shutdown of manufacturing in China (now the second largest economy of the world) would break the global supply chain, with the potential to eliminate Chinarsquo;s current advantageous position. Secondly, many small enterprises in the service industry are facing death or life situation with the spreading disease, and many will bankrupt. When the inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemic appears suddenly becomes a critical issue for China and the world.

How to predict the inflection point of the COVID-19 epidemics?From a geographical point of view, the spatial diffusion of infectious diseases is actually a comprehensive phenomenon in which the virus spreads in space and time. There are many types of diffusions, which can generally be divided into two categories: expansion diffusion and migration diffusion. Expansion diffusion can be further divided into contagious diffusion and hierarchical diffusions; and migration diffusion can be classified into relocation diffusion and propagated diffusions. Contagious diffusion, also known as infection diffusion, refers to the fact that the number of contacts is increasing and the space occupied by contacts is constantly expanding without changing the location of the source of infection. For infectious diseases, through the mutual contact of individuals, the virus or germ is transmitted from the carrier to other people or animals; that is, a progressive continuous spatiotemporal process of the virus or germ diffusion is in place .

To accurately describe such a spatiotemporal process of diffusion, a couple of key elements are needed, such as the source of infection, the intensity, the time and the distance of propagation as well as the propagated channels (paths). The end result is the whole process either “disappears” or is “out of control”. Assuming a situation of single-sourced epidemic and steady intensity of infection, without human interventions, the diffusion of virus in time will follow the shape of the power function or the logistics function . However, since the growth of viral or bacterial cells requires protein nutrition, and cell regeneration takes time, the spatiotemporal process of the infectious diseases evolves in several different stages. For more complicated spatiotemporal processes, quadratic, cubic or exponential functions can be used and adopted .

Wuhan has taken a measure to close the city since 10 a.m. on January 23, 2020. Big data show that most (73.6%) of the outflow population in Wuhan have entered neighboring cities such as Xiaogan, Huanggang, Jingmen, Jingzhou and Xiangyang in Hubei Province from January 20 to 23. Some people also took the virus abroad. This actually separated the propagated environment of the COVID-19 epidemic into three sub-systems: the whole of China(including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), the whole of China except Hubei, and the world. This project has collected data published by the National Health Commission of the Peoplersquo;s Republic of China (NHCPRC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) between January 20 and February 11, 2020. According to the three statistical units of the whole of China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), the whole of China except Hubei, and the world, the number of newly confirmed cases per day was repackaged, and the following findings are revealed.

The epidemic situation of COVID-19 follows the distribution of quadratic and cubic functions. Using the aforementioned five mathematical models for re

剩余内容已隐藏，支付完成后下载完整资料

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