1. 研究目的与意义（文献综述包含参考文献）
1. Introduction.1.1 Research background.Its been nearly three centuries since paper money became recognized as legal tender. [1] Although much has changed in the way transactions carried out, cash has stuck around. However, with the growth of contactless payment systems, the spread of mobile technology and the establishment of Open Banking, cash payments are now losing ground to digital transactions. According to UK Finance, a cash accounts for just 34 percent of the value of all transactions, while in Sweden only 2 percent of payments are now made in cash. [2] Whereas, in developing countries such as Kazakhstan the amount of non-cash operations just exceed the number of transactions made by cash and reached 52 percent at the end of 2019. [3] In fact, this study suggests that a trend towards cashless society is justified financially and has substantial impact on the economic growth of a country. As BSG research estimates, economies that switch to digital medium of exchange can possibly boost annual GDP by as much as 3 percentage points. [4]1.2 Need for the study.This thesis has both practical and academic meanings. As there is a trend of moving to the cashless society and integrating with electronic modes of payment, there will always be a struggle between efficient governance of a countrys economy and the security of personal data of its own citizens. At the same time, there cant be universal economic model for every country of being cashless, because some economies might benefit more from saving the cost associated with management of physical cash and some might have the greater impact from narrowing the shadow economy as well as implementing well-adjusted monetary policy. The study suggests which of those effects might take a greater place in Kazakhstan.2. Literature Review.After all, people have a strong emotional connection to paper currency and lingering distrust of digital alternatives. But at the same time, cash is still inherently problematic and leads to the creation of the shadow economy, which brings inefficiency to the countrys economic activities. Physical cash can be untraceable and anonymous, allowing it to play a large role in crime, including bribery, smuggling, tax evasion, drug dealing, corruption and terrorist financing. [5] In other words, a shadow economy is the part of an economy that neither taxed nor monitored by a government. Some studies show that Kazakhstans informal economy is attributed to one third of annual gross domestic product, resulting in wide revenue lost by government and unawareness of undesired crime activities within the country. [6] Another downside of cash is the cost associated with handling, printing, safeguarding, and transporting it. Operating in cash generally costs countries about 0.5 per cent of their GDP every year. [7] One major North American bank wastes approximately $5 billion every year processing cash transactions and serving ATMs. [4]On the other hand, electronic or non-cash payments, conversely, are transparent, efficient, and usually quite simple. In recent years, paying for things electronically with credit cards, mobile phones and even watches has become much faster and more convenient for people in Kazakhstan. Furthermore, because digital payment methods make it easier to send and receive money, they tend to increase economic activity and generate a wide array of financial and nonfinancial benefits. One reason is that electronic money can increase the velocity of value transfers. In addition, with more transparency from digital transactions, it is easier for businesses and individuals to offer and obtain financing, allowing commercial banks to make more-informed lending decisions. [8] Cashless payments also provide scope for more monetary policies and can help supervisors, central banks, and governments to be more efficient in implementing them. For example, in a recession period central banks usually use low or negative yields policy as a tool to stimulate more lending from banks and increase investment by businesses, as well as encouraging people to invest, lend and spend instead of amassing money. [9] However, Ken Rogoff from Harvard argues that during economic downturns, moves by central banks to cut interest rates to below zero would be infective without eliminating cash from financial system. [10] For instance, during European sovereign debt crisis in 2012, people preferred to withdraw their money from banks due to the negative interest rates and hold cash instead. Going cashless and encouraging the use of electronic payment methods can to some extent solve the problem that is also known as the zero lower bound theory. [11]And yet, despite the evidence, cash has stubbornly resisted going the way of digital extinction. Slow progress towards digital economies is usually associated with rising concerns about government surveillance and peoples personal privacy. Nowadays, tech giants might use the records of your recent purchases and these data trails then might be exploited for cross-selling elsewhere. The fact is that people are not even aware that their consumer behavior is being analyzed. Ever since the Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data scandal in 2018 people have insufficient trust towards digital data storage platforms. [12] As the result, the rise of cyber-crime and growing concerns about the ability of public agencies to look through digital records will add to the unwillingness among many to let go of paper money.3. Summary.You cannot have a developed economy without a developed payments system. Wealth and prosperity depend upon digitalized payment systems in the modern world Chris Hamilton said. In fact, electronic or non-cash payments system are considered to be efficient to the governments, profitable for the businesses and convenient for the customers. The study estimates how beneficial it may be for an economy of a state to move towards digital medium of exchange. However, this efficiency comes with a price for the public of having lack of security in personal data storage. Analyzing the cases of the countries who has already succeed in the transition towards cashless society, the study evaluates the most likely outcomes of the transition on the economy of Kazakhstan.References:[1] Cavendish R., (2011). Europes first banknotes issued in Sweden. London: History Today.[2] Shaw V., (2018) Number of card payments overtakes cash for the first time ever in the UK. London: The Independent.[3] Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (2019) В Казахстане безналичная оплата превысила объемы операций по снятию наличности. Almaty: Forbes Kazakhstan.[4] Massi M., Sullivan G., Khan M., (2019). How cashless payments help economies grow. Boston: Boston Consulting Group.[5] Medina L., Schneider F. (2018). Shadow Economies around the world: What did we learn over the last 20 years? International Monetary Fund Working paper.[6] Medina L., Schneider F. (2018). Kazakhstan: Shadow Economy International Monetary Fund.[7] Beddoes Z., M., (2019) Rich countries must start planning for a cashless future. London: The Economist.[8] Achord S., Chan J., Collier I., Nardani S., Rochemont S., (2017). A Cashless Society: Benefits, Risks and Issues (Interim paper) 149. London: Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.[9] Marria V., (2018). What a cashless society could mean for the future. New York: Forbes Magazine.[10] Chakravorti B., Chaturvedi R.S., Mazzotta B., (2016). The countries that would profit most from a cashless world. Boston: Harvard Business Review. [11] Williams J., C., (2014) Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank.[12] Granville K., (2018) Facebook and Cambridge Analytica: What You Need to Know as Fallout Widens. New York: The New York Times.[13] Tee, H., Ong, H. Cashless payment and economic growth. Financ Innov 2, 4 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016-0023-z[14] Fabris N. (2018). Challenges for Modern Monetary Policy. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 7 (2), 5-24. [15] National Bank of Kazakhstan (2019) Обзор результатов надзора, (оверсайта) платежных систем и развития рынка платежных услуг за 2018 год (Oversight Results of Payment systems and development of market of payment services for 2018). Almaty: National Bank of Republic of Kazakhstan. [16] Al-laham M, Al-tarawneh H (2009) Development of electronic money and its impact on the central bank role and monetary policy.[17] Fox KH (1986) Another step toward the cashless society? the 1978 federal electronic fund. [18] Edgar L., Electronic Money. Cross Border Electronic Banking: Challenges and Opportunities. C. Reed, I. Walden and L. Edgar editors, 2nd edition (LLP, London 2000), p. 203.[19] Chuah J., The New EU Directives to regulate electronic money institutions - A critique. Journal of International Banking Law, (2000), 15(8), pp. 181-182.[20] T. Tether. Payment systems for E-commerce. Border Electronic Banking: Challenges and Opportunities. C. Reed, I. Walden and L. Edgar editors, op. cit; pp. 194-195.
2. 研究的基本内容、问题解决措施及方案
1. Research Topic.The world is becoming increasingly digital every day, as businesses continue to improve their processes by digitizing them and consumers continue to increase their demand for digital services. This digital economy would perhaps be better served by natively electronic money. A type of money that could be easily transferred and used in the virtual realm. Transactions can be performed faster, and the capacity of an economy can be increased, i.e. the volume of transactions it can handle. Ultimately, consumers, companies, and government stand to benefit, and the rise of e-commerce requires an efficient electronic payments infrastructure. However, after thousands of years of fiat currencies, policymakers and corporate leaders should not underestimate the challenges. The solution should be a holistic approach, comprising the right infrastructure, legal frameworks, technologies, and a willingness to partner and collaborate. The task is complex, but the prize is faster growth and an economy enabled for the future.2. Research Methods.2.1 Document research.Document research refers to a means of collecting, selecting, evaluating and analyzing literature and eventually forming a scientific view on a certain subject based on the above procedures. During the research, the author read a large number of domestic and foreign literatures on the prospects of moving to non-cash payment methods for the economies of various countries. He analyzed the cases of such countries as Nigeria, Sweden, India, South Korea, Bangladesh and China to understand the subsequent results for their economic growth and then studied the risks as well as potential problems associated with the integration of the new technologies in the different cultures. Author conducted extensive reading of classic literature and found his own entry point from the previous literature results. Finding relevant restrictive factors and expanding them provides a solid theoretical basis for this study.2.2 Contrast Deduction.Contrast means a comparison of two things so as to point out the differences between them and analyze what causes such differences. In the thesis the author will compare the payment systems of Kazakhstan with those countries that succeeded the most in the sphere and analyze the reasons for the different outcomes in various countries.Last but not least, deduction will be used to draw a conclusion that despite the obvious benefits for the economy of a country from moving towards cashless society, there is no one-size-fits-all strategy that can help with payments evolution of a market. Context analysis of a particular market is critical to enable high digital transactions growth. Models of other countries gives a solid ground for the government of Kazakhstan to implement the right strategies, incentives, infrastructure, and regulation that encourage innovation and boost public confidence in noncash systems.
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