国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究外文翻译资料

The research of international service trade and economic growth theory

by

Greg McGuire

The service sector is the most important sector for most developing economies. It is the largest contributor to gross domestic product, production and employment. Since it is such an important sector, developing economies need to identify their comparative advantage in services and potential export markets.

Developing economies have a comparative advantage in labor services. They have an abundance of low and semi-skilled labor that is a major input into tourism, construction and transport services. New potential export opportunities are also emerging in communications and computer services. However, the export of many of these services is limited by many restrictions on the temporary movement of labor imposed by their trading partners through domestic regulation. Developing economies can improve their export revenues by specifically identifying these restrictions and, where a movement of labor is required, promote the benefits to potential export markets of services trade liberalization.

Developing economies are projected to be better off by US$ 130 billion from services trade liberalization. Consistent with similar modeling exercises for trade in goods, while there are some benefits from improving market access to foreign markets, most of the benefits come for liberalizing onersquo;s own market. As developing economies remove their restrictions, their service sectors develop, primarily funded by foreign direct investment, and they become major exporters of services. The main restrictions on service suppliers that are preventing developing economies from realizing these benefits are limits on foreign direct investment, stringent licensing requirements and restrictions on expanding operations.

The economic and trade performance of an economy is dependent on the efficiency of its service sector. Not only do economies derive the bulk of their employment and income from the service sector, but also many services — financial, telecommunications and transport — are vital intermediate inputs for other sectors. The international competitiveness of traditional sectors of developing economies is heavily dependent on access to services at world prices. The best guarantee that services will be supplied at world prices is to open an economy to the pressures and opportunities of international competition or trade and investment liberalization.

Developing economies benefit from liberalization by gaining market access and exporting those services in which they have relative strength or comparative advantage.Access to foreign services markets is important for developing countries to enable them to improve their export earnings and the employment opportunities of their nationals, as well as increase the efficiency in their own economies so as to mobilize resources for development. Global economic integration and technological developments have increased international trade in services and are providing many export opportunities for developing economies.

Developing economies have the potential to reap greater benefits from liberalization than developed economies, primarily by liberalizing their own service sector. Domestic liberalization permits resources to be allocated to their most efficient uses. A more efficient allocation of resources improves the price, choice and quality of services, and overall economic capacity, which facilitates trade in agriculture and manufacturing — a traditional export earner for developing economies. Central to building economic capacity and progressing development is an efficient financial services sector. Liberal and appropriately regulated financial services sectors efficiently mobilize savings for investment, provide payment mechanisms for business transactions and improve the stability of financial institutions.

Sophisticated general equilibrium modeling of liberalizing trade in services provide insights into the projected real-in-come gains from a more efficient allocation of resources for development. The results establish a framework for negotiating priorities when the gains from liberalizing trade in services are compared with those for agriculture and manufacturing. They also provide valuable information to negotiators and policy makers on the potential gains from improved market access as well as on approaches to liberalization.

The greatest benefits will come from liberalizing all services markets – domestic and foreign. Politically, this is extremely difficult, but a multilateral framework that achieves market access in foreign markets can be an impetus for liberalizing onersquo;s own market. While this paper covers market access in foreign markets, results from empirical research indicate that most of the gains are from domestic liberalization — what you do for yourself is more important than what others do for you.

The study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GATS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.

Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.

For the proposition of that 'International service trade will drive economic growth'. Theoretical analysis

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国际服务贸易与经济增长的理论与实证研究

格雷格麦克吉尔

服务业是大多数发展中经济体最重要的部门。它是国内生产总值，生产和就业的最大贡献者。由于这是一个重要的行业，发展中经济体需要确定其在服务和潜在的出口市场上的比较优势。

发展中经济体在劳务方面具有比较优势。他们拥有丰富的低技能和半熟练劳动力，是旅游，建筑和运输服务的主要投入。通信和计算机服务也出现了新的潜在出口机会。然而，许多这些服务的出口受到对贸易伙伴通过国内管理暂时移交劳工的许多限制的限制。发展中经济体可以通过具体确定这些限制来提高出口收入，并且在需要劳动力的情况下，促进服务贸易自由化潜在出口市场的利益。

预计发展中经济体将比服务业贸易自由化好转1300多亿美元。与货物贸易类似的模拟练习一致，虽然改善进入国外市场的市场有一些好处，但大部分利益来自由市场。随着发展中经济体的消除限制，其服务业发展主要由外商直接投资资助，成为主要的服务出口国。防止发展中经济体实现这些利益的服务供应商的主要限制是对外国直接投资的限制，严格的许可要求和扩大业务的限制。

经济的经济和贸易表现取决于其服务业的效率。经济体不仅从服务部门获得大部分的就业和收入，而且还有许多服务 - 金融，电信和交通运输 - 是其他行业的重要中间投入。发展中经济体的传统部门的国际竞争力在很大程度上依赖以世界价格获得服务。以世界价格提供服务的最好保证是开放一个经济体来应对国际竞争或贸易投资自由化的压力和机遇。

发展中经济体通过获得市场准入和出口具有相对实力或相对优势的服务而受益于自由化。对外国服务市场的接近对发展中国家来说是重要的，以使其能够改善其国民的出口收入和就业机会，如同时提高自身经济效率，调动资源促进发展。全球经济一体化和技术发展增加了国际服务贸易，为发展中经济体提供了许多出口机会。

发展中经济体有可能从发达经济体获得更多的利益，主要是通过自由化服务业。国内自由化将资源分配给其最有效的用途。更有效的资源配置可以提高服务的价格，选择和质量以及总体经济能力，从而促进农业和制造业的贸易 - 传统的发展中国家的出口收入来源。建立经济能力和进步发展的核心是高效的金融服务业。自由和适当监管的金融服务部门有效地调动投资储蓄，为商业交易提供支付机制，提高金融机构的稳定性。

对服务贸易自由化进行复杂的一般均衡模型，从更有效的发展资源配置中，可以看出预期的实际收益。结果确定了将服务贸易自由化的收益与农业和制造业的收益进行比较时，谈判优先事项的框架。他们还向谈判代表和决策者提供了有价值的信息，从改善市场准入和自由化途径方面获得的潜在收益。

最大的好处将来自于开放国内外所有服务市场。在政治上，这是非常困难的，但是在国外市场上实现市场准入的多边框架可能是自由市场自由化的动力。虽然本文涵盖了国外市场的市场准入，但实证研究的结果表明，大部分收益来自国内自由化 - 你对自己的做法比别人对你更重要。

国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。自20世纪80年代以来，世界经济由原来倚重自然资源和制造业的国别型经济正在向倚重信息资源和服务业的全球和区域型经济过渡。随着1994年《服务贸易总协定》(GATS)的签署，服务贸易自由化的制度安排使得世界各国不可避免地卷入服务的国际分工和交换进程中,服务贸易和投资良性互动推动经济迅速增长已是不争的事实。

因此，服务贸易和投资对发达国家和发展中国家经济增长的推动作用是一个统计现象，还是带有普遍意义的经济增长规律？对此问题给予理论解释和实证分析无疑具有重要的政策涵义。

对于 “国际服务贸易驱动经济增长”命题，理论分析认为，服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量，但能通过影响主要增长要素和技术进步而间接作用于经济增长．只不过在不同的经济发展阶段其作用方式和作用机理不同。在特定的经济发展阶段，服务贸易（包括投资）可对一国要素供给、技术进步产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。企业按照比较优势的动态变化路径选择产业、技术结构和贸易模式，由此推动贸易结构、产业结构、技术结构的升级以及增长方式的转变，最终推进经济发展阶段向高级阶段的逐步转换。从服务贸易和投资的作用机理看，服务贸易和投资通过物质资本积累效应、人力资本效应、技术进步效应、制度变迁效应、就业效应以及技术的外部性等路径影响一国的要素供给和技术进步，从而影响其资源禀赋结构的变动和贸易、产业结构的升级。这种影响的动态效应大于静态效应，外部效应大于内部效应．且服务业FDI的技术外溢效应大于狭义服务贸易（包括跨境交付、过境消费和自然人流动）的技术外溢效应。

对服务贸易作用于经济增长内在机理的研究。首先，对世界不同经济体和代表性国家进行因果关系检验。结果表明，无论是世界总体、发达国家以及发展中国家，还是美国和中国均表现出：服务贸易与经济增长存有因果关系。发达经济体、中国的服务贸易是经济增长的原因；世界经济总体、发展经济体则表现出经济增长成为服务贸易的原因：美国的服务贸易出口是经济增长的原因，而经济增长是服务贸易进口的原因。从这个意义上说，服务业的开放有利于一国经济增长，并且服务贸易和投资对经济增长的影响程度与特定的经济发展阶段相关。其次，与已有的研究不同，为了进一步验证服务贸易和投资是如何作用于经济增长以及作用的强度，分别对美国和中国做了实证研究。结果显示，美国服务贸易对经济增长的影响路径由强到弱依次为：就业效应、人力资本效应、物质资本效应。技术效应、制度效应的影响作用相对较弱。中国的实证分析结果可归纳为：服务出口对就业、物质资本积累和制度等效应的作用很大，而人力资本和技术效应影响不显著；服务进口额带来的技术效应、制度效应和就业效应大，人力资本效应和物质资本效应则不显著；服务业FDI的技术效应、人力资本效应和制度效应较为显著，就业效应和物质资本效应较小。并且从作用强度看，总体上服务业FDI路径的影响作用大于服务进口，服务进口又大于服务出口。

根据实证检验可得出以下结论：狭义服务贸易通过服务的进出口路径对一国要素供给产生静态和动态影响，进而促使其国内资源禀赋结构的变动。服务业对外直接投资是服务业中最重要的跨境交易方式之一，因而服务业国际直接投资是影响一国要素供给优势转换的另一条重要途径。值得注意的是，上述渠道对处于不同经济发展阶段的国家影响不同，其影响效应的充分发挥要依赖于特定的约束条件。各影响因素的投入与产出之间不是绝对的函数对应关系，而是互相影响形成无数反馈链共同作用于经济增长。

基于我国经济正处于工业化初级阶段向中级阶段转换时期的判断，以及现阶段服务贸易和投资的比较优劣势和区位优劣势的评判，认为中国应选择“偏保护的管理服务贸易”政策，并采取相应的政策措施。包括：确立三次产业协调发展的科学发展观，为服务贸易奠定坚实的产业基础；制定服务贸易发展战略规划，分层次逐步开放服务贸易市场；准确把握服务产业的国际转移规律，改善服务业利用外资的区位环境。

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