USEXTFIN

对外部融资的依赖，资本支出减去现金流除以资本支出的比率的行业水平的中位数(每个公司的分子和分母在除以之前都是多年的总和)。这一变数衡量的是资本支出中没有由内部产生的现金提供资金的部分。摘自Rajan和Zingales(1998)。

USGrowth

来自Compustat的数据显示，从1980年到1990年，美国公司的实际销售增长、行业平均增长中值一直在飙升。

行业增长

Rajan和Zingales(1998)估计的1980-1990年期间每个国家每个ISIC行业的实际增加值年复合增长率。

分数

1980年Rajan和Zingales(1998)的工业增加值占制造业总增加值的份额。

国内信贷

1980年货币当局和存款机构(不包括银行间存款)持有的国内信贷占国内生产总值的比例。最初的来源是国际金融

统计(IFS)。

市值。

1980年股票市值与国内生产总值之比。IFS。

Fd

金融发展，等于国内信贷和市值之和

日志GDP电脑

1980年以美元计算的人均GDP的对数。IFS

ISIC代码

描述

USEXTFIN USGrowth

314

烟草

-0.451 - 0.031

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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

FINANCIAL DEPENDENCE AND GROWTH REVISITED

Raymond Fisman Inessa Love

Working Paper 9582 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9582

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138

March 2003

We thank Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales, as well as Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez de Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, for kindly allowing us the use of their data. Finally, we thank Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirguuml;ccedil;Kunt, Ann Harrison, Charles Himmelberg, Andrei Kirilenko, Luc Laeven, Sendhil Mullainathan, Jan Rivkin, Tarun Khanna and Luigi Zingales for extremely helpful conversations and advice. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

copy;2003 by Raymond Fisman and Inessa Love. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including copy;notice, is given to the source.

Financial Dependence and Growth Revisited

Raymond Fisman and Inessa Love

NBER Working Paper No. 9582

March 2003

JEL No. G15, G21

ABSTRACT

In this note, we revisit an earlier, highly influential paper on Financial Dependence and Growth by Rajan and Zingales (1998), by re-examining their assumptions, and the robustness of their results to alternative theories and interpretations. We first show that they may be implicitly testing whether financial intermediaries allow firms to better respond to global shocks to growth opportunities, rather than the extent that financial intermediaries allow firms to grow in industries with an inherent (technological) financial dependence. Furthermore, if this is the case, we claim that there exists a more direct measure of growth opportunities. In particular, if U.S. capital markets are perfect, then actual growth in the U.S. is a good proxy for global growth opportunities. We test this directly, by including U.S. industry growth in Rajan and Zingales original specification, and find that our direct growth measure outperforms their financial dependence measure and, moreover, is less vulnerable to controlling for outliers and level of development. This still suggests an important role for finance in the allocation of resources, but shifts the emphasis from financial dependence to global growth opportunities.

In an earlier paper, Rajan and Zingales (1998) examine the relationship between financial market development and finance. This idea, that financial institutions play an important role in the resource allocation process, dates back to at least Schumpeter (1911), who conjectured that banks help to identify entrepreneurs with good growth prospects, and therefore help to reallocate resources to their most productive uses. Therefore, well-developed financial institutions will be crucial to an efficient allocation of resources in response to growth opportunities. The difficulty in testing this hypothesis is that growth opportunities are not generally observable to the econometrician: a firm (or industry, or country) may not be growing because there are no growth opportunities, or because there are opportunities, but no financing to allocate resources to them.

Rajan and Zingales (RZ) point out that this reallocation may be differentially affected by industry characteristics: those that require a lot of upfront outside financing (relative to generated cash flow), such as drugs and pharmaceuticals (perhaps due to Ramp;D costs), will be less likely to grow in the presence of capital market imperfections than other industries where investment more closely coincides with cash generation. RZ further posit that this allows them to identify the extent to which financial market development facilitates the allocation of resources to needy entrepreneurs: industries that are lsquo;external finance dependentrsquo; should grow relatively less in countries with underdeveloped capital markets.

In this comment, we begin by developing a simple theoretical model upon which we base a new test of the growth – financial development hypothesis. We assume that there exist global shocks to growth opportunities, due to demand shocks and/or shifts in factor prices. Further, following previous work, we claim that if firms in the United States respond perfectly to these shocks, then growth of firms in the U.S. should be a proxy for these growth opportunities. The extent to which firms in other countries respond to these opportunities, and therefore the degree

to which growth in these countries is correlated with the growth of U.S. firms, will depend on the level of financial market development in these countries.

We then go on to present a model that yields a monotonic relationship between (unobserved) growth opportunities and reliance on external financial markets – firms that rely on external financial markets are naturally those with strong future opportunities relative to current cash-generating capacity. Based on this model, we show that RZrsquo;s original measure of lsquo;technologicalrsquo; external dependence may be proxying for shocks to the global growth opportunities that we use to generate our own estimating equation. This would yield a substantively different interpretation of RZrsquo;s results: rather than suggesting that countries with well-developed financial markets have a natural lsquo;affinityrsquo; ex ante for growth in certain industries, our e

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